Now the conventions are over, and low-information voters begin actually paying attention to the Presidential candidates. The tiny cadre of activists who voted in the primaries are now swamped by the much larger group of people who pay no attention to politics except occasionally bothering to vote for President every four years.
They're taking their first look at Trump, and they're not liking what they see:
The challenge now for Trump is cutting into the major deficits he is facing among certain groups where he trails not just Clinton, but Mitt Romney’s levels in 2012: groups like college-educated voters, which Romney won by 4 percentage points in exit polls, but where Trump is now losing in the double digits, according to a new CNN/ORC poll. Trump will also likely need to improve his leads among groups where he is already outperforming past Republicans....
But Trump is also alienating college-educated voters, a group Republicans in the past were able to woo. Trump was behind by three percentage points among voters with a bachelor's degree, who prefer Clinton 44 percent to 41 percent, according to a Morning Consult poll taken in the two days following the DNC. In 2012, Romney beat Obama among college-educated voters 51 percent to 47 percent in the exits.
Trump’s problems with women voters -- who make up a majority of the electorate -- are also increasing the ground he’ll need to cover just to match Romney. Clinton’s lead with women voters is 13 percentage points in the CNN/ORC poll, which is greater than Obama’s 11 percentage point exit poll lead over Romney in 2012.... The CNN/ORC poll finds Clinton leading in this group by 3 percentage points, but there, Trump trounces her 60 percent to 34 percent among non-college educated white voters.
Trump is an exciting outsider candidate who has broken many of the rules which people thought governed American elections. If he had more charisma and better judgment, he could pose a genuine threat to Clinton. But Donald Trump is simply an asshole, subspecies blunt, brash, rich, nasal-voiced, arrogant New York asshole. He always has been and always will be. Americans don't like assholes, and the 310 million of them who don't live in New York don't like New York assholes.
There are intelligent people who support Trump. But many of them are falling victim to what I call the pissing-off-the-right-people fallacy, for lack of a better phrase. This is the tendency to support Person X because X angers and annoys people you believe deserve to be angered and annoyed, despite the fact that X's own ideas and character are obviously deficient. "The key thing is he's made the right enemies!" Or the German version, Viel Feind viel Ehr (many enemies, much honor).
This is why Milo Yiannopoulis and his ilk don't impress me. His shenanigans are enjoyable, and he does make valid points about the stifling effects of political correctness. But just because he sometimes POTRP doesn't mean his political judgment in general is reliable. And indeed, his support of Trump shows he has the political judgment of a rent-boy. A jest I can make about Milo because who's he to complain?
Trump has relied on the POTRP effect to run up huge majorities among lesser-educated white voters, but there still aren't enough of those to win an election. Barring some twist of fate, Trump has no chance. So now he's trying another tack: claiming the election will be rigged:
Hannity, Aug. 1: "You said at a speech today you’re afraid this election is going to be rigged. Explain."
Trump: "Yeah. Well, I’ve been — I’ve been hearing about it for a long time. And I know last time, there were — you had precincts where there were practically nobody voting for the Republican. And I think that’s wrong. I think that was unfair, frankly, than Mitt Romney. You had areas where a lot of people were curious, 'How is that possible?' "
"… and I’m telling you, November 8th, we’d better be careful, because that election is going to be rigged. And I hope the Republicans are watching closely, or it’s going to be taken away from us."
This is what happens when things stop going a narcissist's way: they invent excuses, stage a diversion, complain about the rules, and if all else fails, take their ball and go home. Take it away, Mayo Clinic:
Narcissistic personality disorder is a mental disorder in which people have an inflated sense of their own importance, a deep need for admiration and a lack of empathy for others. But behind this mask of ultraconfidence lies a fragile self-esteem that's vulnerable to the slightest criticism.A narcissistic personality disorder causes problems in many areas of life, such as relationships, work, school or financial affairs. You may be generally unhappy and disappointed when you're not given the special favors or admiration you believe you deserve. Others may not enjoy being around you, and you may find your relationships unfulfilling.