Another Prediction Realized: The Upper Limit

So much has been happening that it seems impossible it was less than three weeks ago that I inadvertently sketched the future of German migration policy.

Me, August 31: In consultation with other EU member states, Germany will set an annual upper limit on the number of humanitarian migrants, including refugees, which it will harbor. I'd suggest something like 250,000 per year. A million refugees a year is not sustainable for Germany.

German Interior Minister (for now, calls for him to resign are getting louder) Thomas de Maiziere, as summarized (g) by the German channel RTL: "Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has made a controversial proposal in light of the continuing stream of refugees. In an interview with 'Der Spiegel' he demanded EU quotas. In other words, an upper limit for the acceptance of refugees. If the limit is reached, the Minister said, the refugee should be sent back to their country of origin, if it is safe there."

See, this is why I don't mind when people inaccurately call me a right-wing populist. In this crisis of uncontrolled mass migration, what's a "right-wing populist" idea on Monday is often the conventional wisdom by Friday. 




Austria: Right-Wing Populist Party in the Lead

The "Freedom Party of Austria" is a right-wing nativist/populist party comparable to the Front National in France. Its most famous leader was the spectacularly bizarre gay anti-immigrant Jean-Claude van Damme look-alike Jörg Haider, who once said:

"The social order of Islam is opposed to our Western values. Human rights and democracy are as incompatible with the Muslim religious doctrine as is the equality of women. In Islam, the individual and his free will count for nothing; faith and religious struggle – jihad, the holy war – for everything.

Haider died in a drunk-driving crash in 2008, with a BAC of 1.8, after leaving a gay bar. 

The Freedom Party has long been a force in Austrian politics, and it's even formed governing coalitions. It used to be (European) liberal / nationalist, but is now right-wing populist. Parties to the left of the FPA have tried to limit its participation in government and exclude controversial FPA members from high posts.

Now, thanks to the refugee crisis, the FPA is the strongest party in Austria. The most recent opinion poll (g) shows Austrians favor the Freedom Party by 33% Next come the Social Democrats with 23%, then the center-right People's Party with 21%. Two-thirds of Austrians disapprove of the current government (a grand coalition of center-right and center-left), especially its handling of immigration. The current Chancellor of Austria is a member of the Social Democratic Party, which would get 23% of the vote, 10 points behind the Freedom Party.

Austria has just stopped migrants crossing the border, stranding groups of them in Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, and Hungary, which are busy screaming insults at each other and tossing the refugees back and forth (g).

The crisis continues.

Soeren Kern on Sex Crimes In and Around German Refugee Shelters

Thanks to Stakhanov, I am pointed to this long piece by Soeren Kern on sexual assaults inside and outside German refugee shelters. He contends German police are 'downplaying a massive spike' in these incidents:

The problem of rapes and sexual assaults in German refugee shelters is a nationwide problem.

In Bavaria, women and girls housed at a refugee shelter in Bayernkaserne, a former military base in Munich, are subject to rape and forced prostitution on a daily basis, according to women's rights groups. Although the facility has separate dorm rooms for women, the doors cannot be locked and men control access to the sanitary facilities.

Approximately 80% of the refugees/migrants at the shelter are male, according to Bavarian Broadcasting (Bayerischer Rundfunk), which reports that the price for sex with female asylum seekers is ten euros. A social worker described the facility this way: "We are the biggest brothel in Munich."


On August 6, police revealed that a 13-year-old Muslim girl was raped by another asylum seeker at a refugee facility in Detmold, a city in west-central Germany. The girl and her mother reportedly fled their homeland to escape a culture of sexual violence; as it turns out, the man who raped the girl is from their country.

Although the rape took place in June, police kept silent about it for nearly three months, until local media published a story about the crime. According to an editorial comment in the newspaperWestfalen-Blatt, police are refusing to go public about crimes involving refugees and migrants because they do not want to give legitimacy to critics of mass migration.

Police chief Bernd Flake countered that the silence was aimed at protecting the victim. "We will continue with this policy [of not informing the public] whenever crimes are committed in refugee facilities," he said.


Over the weekend of June 12-14, a 15-year-old girl housed at a refugee shelter in Habenhausen, a district in the northern city of Bremen, was repeatedly raped by two other asylum seekers. The facility has been has been described as a "house of horrors" due to the spiraling violence perpetrated by rival gangs of youth from Africa and Kosovo. A total of 247 asylum seekers are staying at the shelter, which has a capacity for 180 and a cafeteria with seating for 53.

Meanwhile, the raping of German women by asylum seekers is becoming commonplace. Following are a few select cases just from 2015:

On September 11, a 16-year-old girl was raped by an unidentified "dark-skinned man speaking broken German" close to a refugee shelter in the Bavarian town of Mering. The attack occurred while the girl was walking home from the train station.

On August 13, police arrested two Iraqi asylum seekers, aged 23 and 19, for raping an 18-year-old German woman behind a schoolyard in Hamm, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia.

On July 26, a 14-year-old boy was sexually assaulted inside the bathroom of a regional train in Heilbronn, a city in southwestern Germany. Police are looking for a "dark skinned" man between the ages of 30 and 40 who has an "Arab appearance." Also on July 26, a 21-year-old Tunisian asylum seeker raped a 20-year-old woman in the Dornwaldsiedlung district of Karlsruhe. Police kept the crime secret until August 14, when a local paper went public with the story.

On June 9, two Somali asylum seekers, aged 20 and 18, were sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison for raping a 21-year-old German woman in Bad Kreuznach, a town in Rhineland-Palatinate, on December 13, 2014.

On June 5, a 30-year-old Somali asylum seeker called "Ali S" was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for attempting to rape a 20-year-old woman in Munich. Ali had previously served a seven-year sentence for rape, and had been out of prison for only five months before he attacked again. In an effort to protect the identity of Ali S, a Munich newspaper referred to him by the more politically correct "Joseph T."

On May 22, a 30-year-old Moroccan man was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for attempting to rape a 55-year-old woman in Dresden. On May 20, a 25-year-old Senegalese asylum seeker was arrested after he attempted to rape a 21-year-old German woman at the Stachus, a large square in central Munich.

On April 16, a 21-year-old asylum seeker from Iraq was sentenced to three years and ten months in prison for raping a 17-year-old girl at festival in the Bavarian town of Straubing in August 2014. On April 7, a 29-year-old asylum seeker was arrested for the attempted rape of a 14-year-old girl in the town of Alzenau.

On March 17, two Afghan asylum seekers aged 19 and 20 were sentenced to five years in prison for the "particularly abhorrent" rape of a 21-year-old German woman in Kirchheim, a town near Stuttgart, on August 17, 2014.

On February 11, a 28-year-old asylum seeker from Eritrea was sentenced to four years in prison for raping a 25-year-old German woman in Stralsund, along the Baltic Sea, in October 2014.

On February 1, a 27-year-old asylum seeker from Somalia was arrested after attempting to rape women in the Bavarian town of Reisbach.

On January 16, a 24-year-old Moroccan immigrant raped a 29-year-old woman in Dresden.


Meanwhile, parents are being warned to look after their daughters. Police in the Bavarian town of Mering, where a 16-year-old-girl was raped on September 11, have issued a warning to parents not to allow their children to go outside unaccompanied. They have also advised women not to walk to or from the train station alone because of its proximity to a refugee shelter.

Now, as to the source. The Gatestone Institute is located in the US and officially non-partisan. It is, however, run by American neo-conservatives, both famous and obscure. Its chairman is John Bolton. That should give you an idea of its political orientation. The author, Soeren Kern, has ties to center-right think tanks and European political parties, but also has extensive professional experience and education, and being a joint German-American citizen, understands German.

That is, he's not an extremist or fanatic. He's a journalist and researcher with a conservative political orientation. 

I checked a few of the links he provided, and the translations are reliable. The one quibble I have is with this quotation: "Police chief Bernd Flake countered that the silence was aimed at protecting the victim. "We will continue with this policy [of not informing the public] whenever crimes are committed in refugee facilities," he said. This was in In context, the police chief was referring to sex crimes involving children, and arguing that it was the general policy of Detmold police not to report these, and that this policy would also extend to refugee shelters. However, in the same article, he goes on to undermine the point by adding the argument that the shelters would be 'filled with yellow-press journalists' if the rape of children inside them were reported.

Remember, Germany is in the process of allowing uncontrolled mass migration of 70% young men from some of the world's most conservative cultures. Anyone who's traveled in sexually conservative third-world countries immediately senses the bottled-up sexual energy. Aside from hands and faces, there is basically no uncovered female skin on display either in real life or in public images. The population is disproportionately young and male, and extra-marital intercourse is still considered a huge scandal outside a tiny fraction of the urban elite. So the only legal way to have regular sex is through marriage. But getting married takes resources that are out of many young men's reach.

So they turn to online pornography, which should hardly come as a surprise. And believe me, the behavior of many ordinary European women -- wearing tight clothes, showing all that skin, walking around unaccompanied -- would get an average woman shunned, at the very least. Therefore, many ignorant young men from these cultures believe all European women are promiscuous. Several times, young men have asked me what it's like in Germany, with all those hot-to-trot women everywhere. "You must be making love every night different woman, no?" an Egyptian asked me once.

This is not to excuse sex crimes in any way -- anyone who commits one should be sent to prison for a long time. My point is rather this. We now have a situation in which Germany:

(1) allowed uncontrolled mass migration of hundreds of thousands of sexually-frustrated young men from conservative cultures who are now thousands of miles away from the moderating influence of family and neighborhood; and then 

(2) housed them in improvised, overcrowded accommodations with inadequate security and no locks; and put them

(3) right next to young females in the shelter, and with ready access to "promiscuous" German women on the outside.

Now that these fateful decisions have been made. The consequences could and should have been foreseen by any responsible policy-maker with any worldly experience. Many of these crimes could have been prevented if Germany had taken a responsible, controlled approach to immigration. And as long as the authorities keep actively trying to cover up the resulting problems -- which they've admitted doing -- the German xenophobic right will continue to reap the benefits by styling itself the only citizens "concerned" enough to tell the real truth.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.

"Merkel is Le Pen's Ally" Say French Socialists and Conservatives

Deutschlandfunk sends Ursula Welter around Paris to interview (g, my translation) some French political bigwigs about Merkel. Merkel has good relations with French conservatives and considers them allies. But they have had it. First up is Pierre Lellouche, foreign policy spokesman for the French conservatives:

"I don't know, I ask myself just like all the others why she changed course so brutally. She has fueled a crisis, a crisis that can no longer be contained. When she made the decision [to stop enforcing Dublin and open the borders] she sent out an immense clarion call of temptation to millions of people currently housed in Turkey, in Lebanon, in Jordan, not to mention those in Africa and those about to venture a journey over the Mediterranean.

"It's clear that Madame Le Pen will be able to exploit these fears, not us.

"But you can't simply speak of European values when it suits you. German cannot demand quotas from others. If I were Alexis Tsipras, I would demand quotas for Greece and say please take a share of my debts. If I were Francois Hollande I would say give me a quota of German soldiers or helicopters for our operations in Mali."

Xavier Bertrand, a senior conservative figure running against Le Pen in regional voting in northern France says: "German policy is complete nonsense. I will not accept a purely German Europe." When asked whether this crisis threatens Europe, he says yes, clearly. 

The reporter encounters a Socialist deputy, Malek Bouthi, in a TV studio: "One can welcome the generosity of the German people, but Angela Merkel made a serious political mistake for Europe. The truth is that Merkel's behavior triggered crises in neighboring countries, particularly in France. Merkel is Le Pen's ally."

As I've said before, this migrant crisis seems likely to bring solid, long-lasting governing coalitions between the center and nativist right all over Western Europe. This will work out differently in France, since only one person can win the Presidency, but the background dynamics are the same.

Germany is Not 'Doing Away with Itself' and Will Never be Islamized

I must say, following the migrant crisis is most stimulating. But just for clarity's sake, I want to draw a few lines.

I am definitely not a believer in the silly thesis of Eurabia, or, to quote the title of Thilo Sarrazin's 2010 book, that Germany is 'doing away with itself' ('Deutschland schafft sich ab'). It's also silly to talk about the 'Islamization' of Europe.

Germany is not destroying itself and will never be Islamized. There are 4 million Muslims living in Germany right now, and most are, of course, productive, law-abiding citizens. Residents of German with non-German roots have in aggregate lower incomes and less education than ethnic Germans. They are also disproportionately likely to commit crimes and live on social welfare benefits. But the vast majority don't do these things, of course. And the social deficits of 'Muslims' as a whole mask huge differences within the German Muslim population. The principal reason for these somewhat disappointing numbers are Germany's 2.2 million Turks, who do much worse than Germans on almost every measure of social adjustment. Other Muslim subgroups do better than ethnic Germans.

Even the incorporation of 3 million new mostly-Muslim migrants won't change this state of affairs much. We're just beginning to get information about the migrants coming in now. The consensus seems to be that about 20% have college degrees, and the average level of education seems to be about 6th grade. Assuming they stay, about 30% will probably be able to learn fluent German, and another 30% will learn acceptable German. The top 20-30% in terms of cognitive ability and education -- the engineers, lawyers, doctors, accountants, nurses, teachers, pharmacists, dentists, etc. -- will adapt successfully to life in Germany. They may not be able to practice their former profession, but they'll find work and integrate easily.

The next-lower 30-40% will get some sort of work, possibly after a very long delay. They'll find work in areas in which a limited knowledge of German isn't a problem. Warehouse worker, tailor, cashier, butchers' or bakers' assistant, mover, electrician, nurses' aide, home healthcare worker, helper in a family-run shop or waiter in a family-run restaurant, Uber driver, park groundskeeper, janitor, etc. The kind of thing that immigrants do now in Germany.

The least-qualified 30-40% will live off social welfare benefits and odd jobs. They won't ever learn more than a rudimentary vocabulary of 500-1000 words, and will be disproportionately likely to commit crimes.

The Magic Pixie Dust crowd wants us to see all the new migrants as a wonderful opportunity. They will immediately start inventing fabulous new products, obediently work themselves stiff, teach Germans how to love again, and fill our neighborhoods with nothing but Vibrant Diversity™. The doomsayers say they'll never find jobs, they'll all turn into criminals, they'll carry out terrorist attacks, live off social welfare benefits for generations after generation, and drag Germany down into poverty and mediocrity.

Neither the Magic Pixie Dust crowd nor the doomsayers are right, if you ask me. The current crop of migrants will have hugely diverse experiences. Some will turn out successful, others,. as I have argued, will greatly increase the scale of existing social problems in German inner cities. I think this is not a good policy outcome, which is why I have been highlighting the very real problems migrants will bring with them. But none of these problems will come within light-years of destabilizing German or any other European society. All West European countries currently have severe social problem in their inner cities, and most have much worse problems than Germany. At no point have these social problems come anywhere near close to threatening the overall stability or prosperity of these countries. And they never will. The numbers just aren't there, and never will be.

And as for Islamization, this is also a chimera. The new immigrants are also going to have a huge variety of approaches to Islam, from fervent fundamentalism to a totally secular viewpoint. Most of the women wear headscarves, but I know from experience that you can't tell anything merely from this practice. So they'll build more mosques in Germany. So what? Doesn't bother me. More than 9 out of 10 Germans will still not be Muslim. The number of Germans who convert to Islam will continue being infinitesimally small. Contemporary Germans are simply not interested in any traditional religion of any flavor, except perhaps Buddhism.

As for undermining 'German values', this is also a silly nebulous fear. How can a country in which the most popular movie in recent years was called 'Fuck You, Goethe!' (misspelled in German!) claim that the masses are still nourished by the elegance of Weimar classicism? As is the case all over the world, Minecraft and Apple will be a thousand times more culturally influential on the average German, whatever their religion, than supposed 'traditional' German values which are kept alive only among aging cohorts of the educated bourgeoisie.

And no, Muslims are not going to take over Europe. Muslim families will probably continue being somewhat larger, but only for a few generations. And as for the notion of millions of Muslims totally swamping Europe, that is not going to happen. As foolish as I find current EU/German policy, the notion that Europe would actually admit massive flows of tens or hundreds of millions of Muslims is just silly. As we have seen recently, European governments can be moved to swift action once they (belatedly) realize the scope of the crisis. There are still open-borders dreamers in the ivory tower, but in the current political climate, they are being totally ignored. 

How Do I Predict the Future?


Some of you may be wondering how I predict German and EU immigration policy days, weeks, even months in advance. Just this morning, I blogged: "I predict there will be drastic changes in policy very soon." And lo and behold, just hours later Germany sealed off its borders -- as if on my command! 

Is it a mystical gift? A pact with the devil? Aquarust?

No, dear readers, it's none of those things. It's a mixture of 7 secret ingredients that I, in my infinite generosity, now reveal to you, my beloved disciples:

  1. Common sense. (You Marxists may prefer to call it "bourgeois common sense" in scare-quotes. Be my guest!)
  2. Anglo-Saxon pragmatism.
  3. Google-Fu.
  4. An understanding of basic statistics.
  5. 46 years of worldly experience.
  6. A bit of travel in the third world.
  7. Knowledge and acceptance of human nature.

I won't reveal the proportions. That's my secret. Stand by for more German Joys Predictions™ to come true in the coming days!

Migrant Children in Germany: "We Love Hitler!"

Ask any German who's lived in the Arab world for a while and interacted with normal people, and you will almost always hear of Arabs who admire, even love Adolf Hitler. Some of the ones I know even stopped identifying themselves as Germans in conversation, to avoid that blood-chilling moment when their conversation partner would say: 'Adolf Hitler very good man! Hero!' It has happened to me -- and not just in Arab countries -- when I identified myself as German to avoid getting into long conversations about American foreign policy.

But of course it's not just an Arab problem by any stretch. It happened to me most recently on a park bench in downtown Sofia, Bulgaria, where a man who borrowed a cigarette from me started chatting and revealed that he had once lived and worked in Germany but his work permit had been revoked because 'the Jews up there' didn't want more 'Christian Bulgarians' in the country. I was tempted to try to enlighten him, but really, where do you even begin with a comment like that?

Remember, we are not talking about the 15-20% of the educated elite of these societies, who either understand the evil of Hitler or know enough not to discuss the issue with foreigners. We are talking about ignorant or illiterate people. Their views are shaped by attitudes passed down through generations (and either tolerated or encouraged by their governments) and never challenged by an educated person.

But that doesn't mean we have to let these backward prejudices into Germany. Commenter KS brings a report from the front lines of migrant education in Germany right now which I thought worthy of hoisting to the main page: 

When I finished school in 2005, I travelled around some time in Egypt and Jordan and I was astonished by the fact, that the old-fashioned anti-semitism, that I only knew from history books, creepy internet-pages and grandma's honest moments, was pretty much political mainstream in these countries. Including the admiration of Hitler. (I mean, I expected some hatred towards Israel - but the arguments about filthy, conspiring jews were an exact copy of European anti-semitism.) Today I work as a teacher in a class in which pupils, who just came to Germany, learn the German language, before they can attend the regular classes.

Last week I taught about German history. Now my pupils were astonished by the fact, that Germany doesn't admire Hitler anymore. "Aber alle lieben Hitler!" ("But everyone loves Hitler!") was one of the reactions, by a Macedonian boy with a christian-orthodox background by the way. Two boys from Syria applauded him. So I asked politely (to get an honest reaction): "Wer von euch liebt Hitler?" ("Who of you loves Hitler?") Five out of eleven children raised their hands: the two guys from Syria (Kurdish Muslims), two Macedonians (Christian-Orthodox) and one guy from Somalia (Muslim). The children who didn't raise their hands were Roma and two boys from Portugal.

It's hard to imagine anything more depressing than young children taught to admire Hitler, isn't it? Now you could look at this as a glass-half-full optimist: at least these kids will be able to escape the miasma of ignorance and prejudice that poisons their countries of origin (and helps explain why their countries of origin have so many problems). At least they'll escape it while they're in school. Certain schools, that is. At home is a different story.

And I would agree with you, to a point. But an intensive re-education program requires significant resources. It might well work with 10,000, 20,000 or even 50,000 fresh migrants. But with 800,000+? And the millions who will follow thanks to family reunification? Not a chance. If policies don't change quickly, Germany may end up importing millions of new residents -- 3-4% of its entire population -- who despise Jews and admire Hitler.

I think that's a serious public-policy issue that should be openly and frankly debated right now, don't you?

What Will Our 800,000 New Syrian Neighbors Think About Jews and Israel?

Last year, during the latest military flare-up of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, hundreds of people took to the streets in German cities chanting pro-Hamas slogans and calling for Jews to be gassed. Here's a video taken during one of these demos:

If you were expecting white German skinheads, you were disappointed. This was a demonstration from the far-left 'Solid' group, and as you can see, the majority of the demonstrators were not ethnically German. At about the 1:30 point, a man speaks into the camera in German, with a strong foreign accent. The anti-Israel demonstration is running toward a pro-Israel demonstration looking for confrontation. The man notes this 'isn't good', but has to happen since 'the Jews are insulting us'. 49 people were charged with inciting racial hatred for chanting anti-Semitic slogans during this demonstration, but charges were later dropped (g) against 45 of them. 

There is, of course, anti-Semitism among native Germans. But I can tell you from first-hand experience, there is a whole lot more, and more virulent, anti-Semitism among residents of Germany who immigrated from Muslim countries. I have had dozens of conversations with recent immigrants from Muslim countries (often during German as a foreign language courses) that made my hair stand on end. Of course anti-Semitic attitudes are not confined to Muslim nations, but they are particularly common there. This should come as no surprise, since high-ranking leaders of the Arab world, especially, are notorious for embracing the Protocols of the Elders of Zion as truth:

The exception to [the universal consensus that the Protocols are an anti-Semitic hoax] is the Middle East, where a large number of Arab and Muslim regimes and leaders have endorsed them as authentic. Past endorsements of The Protocols from Presidents Gamal Abdel Nasser and Anwar Sadat of Egypt, one of the President Arifs of Iraq, King Faisal of Saudi Arabia, and Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi of Libya, among other political and intellectual leaders of the Arab world, are echoed by 21st century endorsements from the Grand Mufti of Jerusalem, Sheikh Ekrima Sa'id Sabri, and Hamas, to the education ministry of Saudi Arabia.

School textbooks and government statements incorporate vile anti-Semitic tropes, both at home and in European schools. In 2010, the BBC program Panorama revealed that:

[A]bout 40 Muslim weekend clubs and schools in the UK [are] using Saudi textbooks that, among other niceties, describe Jews as descended from "monkeys" and "pigs", denigrate nonbelievers, advocate killing homosexuals and refer to the "reprehensible qualities of Jews".

And Syria is one of the very worst offenders. Syria's current leader, Bashar al-Assad, has said

'We must therefore speak about the street and not get bogged down in analyzing people. We say the [Israeli] Prime Minister is racist, the government is racist and the army is racist, but when we come to Israeli society, we are speechless. What is the sense of this? Everything that has already transpired is a result of Israeli society. It is a society more racist than the Nazis. Everyone says this in closed meetings. Every Arab citizen says these things. We represent the Arab world and it is therefore natural that we say what they want us to say and in a manner that will express the conscience of the Arab citizen'.

During the Pope's [2001] visit to Syria, the President delivered a speech in which he referred to Israel thus: 'We hear them destroy the principle of equality while they speak of Allah who singled out their nation from other nations and we see them damaging the holy places to Islam and Christianity in Palestine … They are trying to destroy all the religions' monotheistic principles, according to the same mentality with which they betrayed Jesus and tortured him, and according to the same mentality with which they tried to kill the prophet Muhammad'. (emphasis added)

In mid-2014, a UN school for Palestinian refugee children in a refugee camp outside Damascus posted these cartoons to Facebook, celebrating a recent trend of Palestinians killing Israelis by running them over with automobiles.

Screen Shot 2015-08-24 at 12.35.29 AM

Screen Shot 2015-08-24 at 12.35.00 AM

There are thousands of examples of anti-Semitic indoctrination like this from all over the Muslim world (although not only the Muslim world, of course), and Syria is always near the top of the list.

It should come as no surprise, then, that Syria's once-thriving Jewish community has scattered, and that there are only 22 Jews left in Syria. So, as we welcome hundreds of thousands of random Syrians who happened to make it to German soil, we should keep in mind almost all of them were raised in a virulently anti-Semitic and anti-Israel political climate and educational system. And, as we saw in 2014, the mere fact of relocation to Germany does not automatically render every immigrant into a benevolent, tolerant person. I wonder if anyone is giving any thought to this?

One of the advantages of controlled immigration is that you have a better chance of weeding out people who are going to cause trouble in your country, for instance by chanting openly for your fellow citizens to be gassed to death. First thing we need is a border fence to stop the spectacle of masses of humans hiking across Southeastern Europe. Refugees should be screened where they now are, and if accepted, flown humanely direct to the country that has accepted them. There should be refugee-relocation centers in Syrian camps right now to screen potential refugees for relocation in Germany. They should have fluent Arabic speakers on staff. Preferably fellow Arabs, to increase the likelihood of honest answers. I would ask prospective Syrian refugees the following questions:

1. Are you aware that Germany has a large and growing Jewish population?

2. Are you aware that the Government of Germany has a close relationship with the State of Israel?

3. Do you believe that the Nazis murdered 6 million Jews during the Holocaust?

4. What is your personal opinion of the Jewish faith?

5. What is your opinion of the State of Israel?

6. Do you believe that Jews drink the blood of Christian children?

7. Do you believe that Jews have a secret plan for world domination?

8. How would you react if a neighbor moved in next door who was Jewish?

If the prospective Syrian refugee gives the 'wrong' answer to 2 or 3 of these questions, their application will be denied. They can apply to another country for asylum, one that is more in tune with their ideas. Germany is not obliged to take in all of the world's refugees, and doesn't need to import any more anti-Semites than it already has.

Glimpse Tomorrow's Migrant Policies Today on This Blog

Well, so much for the one-post-a-week plan. I just can't help myself. You don't associate prudent, practical Germans with the act of sleepwalking into a crisis, but that seems to be what they're doing right now. It's a fascinating new experience for me. In any case, all my immigration posts will be tagged as such, so you can ignore them if you wish.

A while ago I jotted down an 11-point sketch for handling the migrant crisis. Nothing particularly original, but I thought it might stimulate some debate. Some readers surely found may plan Draconian and cold-hearted. Yet, as the migrant crisis keeps spiraling out of control (headline in the Sueddeutsche yesterday: "Increasing Signs of a Crisis" (g)), and costs mount into the dozens of billions of Euros, my modest proposals are quickly becoming the mainstream consensus.

A few examples:

Me, August 30: "The EU should build a high-tech fence around its external borders with non-EU nations."

Veteran Swedish diplomat and former Swedish Prime Minister and Foreign Minister Carl Bildt (strong opponent of the Iraq War), yesterday: '"[W]e have to find a coherent European response. Controlling the outer border of Schengen is vital to the system,” he said, referring to the passport-free zone within Europe. “It is uncomfortable but necessary, and it needs to be done.'"

Me, August 30: "All states within Europe, perhaps with the exception of Belarus, should be declared safe countries of origin. All migrants from Albania, Kosovo, etc. should be swiftly deported unless they can qualify for refugee status...."

Germany's leading grand coalition, policy reform proposals agreed yesterday (g): Kosovo, Montenegro and Serbia will be declared secure countries of origin, immigrants from these countries will be swiftly deported, once their asylum claims are denied their cash handouts and in-kind support will be significantly reduced.

Seems like a weekend in which 20,000 refugees arrived in Germany (as many as Britain has pledged to take in 5 years), priorities quickly snapped into place. Send those buses brimming with Bogdans barreling back to the Balkans, aber schnell!

In other news, the right-wing anti-immigrant party Sweden Democrats is now the most popular party in Sweden, with 25% of the vote. This may have something to do with the fact that two Eritrean asylum seekers have recently been charged with stabbing a Swedish mother and her son to death in a terrifying random attack in an IKEA store, and asylum seekers have also been charged with the gang-rape of a Swedish woman in the town of Ludvika.

One might wonder whether Sweden is doing a responsible job of screening and monitoring asylum seekers to protect its citizens.

In any case, an official of Sweden's new most popular political party enthused: "It’s a tremendous breakthrough for us!" Until this time, mainstream Swedish parties have enforced a cordon sanitaire policy, refusing to form coalitions with the untouchable 'populist' Sweden Democrats. I wonder how that's going to work if they continue to be the single most popular party in the country.

And speaking of democracy, the leaders of Germany's grand coalition demanded a 'national act of strength' (Kraftakt) of Germans to handle the influx of hundreds of thousands of new migrants. They didn't mention that, over the years, these hundreds of thousands will swell to millions due to chain migration. They compared this massive national challenge to the reunification of Germany in the early 1990s. This trope was enthusiastically taken up by dozens of newspaper commentators calling on Germans to fundamentally re-assess their idea of what German society is and to prepare for 'huge new challenges' that will last for 'generations to come'. Am I the only one who finds this sort of language a bit ominous?

Also, these commentators are missing a rather fundamental distinction. The economic miracle and re-unification were national projects taken on by Germans, for Germans, with overwhelming popular approval from the German electorate (70% (g) were for re-unification in 1990). Current poll numbers show a similar level of support right now for providing immediate assistance to refugees. But after the initial rush of hospitality is over, people are going to start asking what was the precise democratic legitimacy behind the policy of (1) violating EU law by refusing to enforce the Dublin accords; which (2) let hundreds of thousands of completely unknown foreigners into the country; which (3) will impose huge and unknowable burdens on Germany for 'generations' to come. 

Seems like a policy this important should be approved in advance by a majority of the population after a thorough debate, should it not?