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5098 Migrants Came Yesterday

In case you were wondering, the stream of migrants into Germany has not slowed, despite the introduction of ineffectual border controls between the German and Austrian border. 

Yesterday, 5098 people (g) entered Germany illegally. The numbers have declined since Germany went back on its explicit promise to stop enforcing Schengen (which requires refugees to be housed and to file asylum claims in the first EU country they set foot in; i.e. Greece). Right now, it's not clear exactly where Germany stands on enforcing Schengen. It's hard to figure out exactly what German policy is on enforcing Schengen, because politicians' statements are either vague, contradictory, or both. The same goes for the issue of whether Germany is in favor of an upper limit on EU refugees. They say they are, but then they go on and say that in principle there can be no upper limit.

The forecast is for 130,000 people to illegally enter Germany this month alone.

Assuming 3,000 migrants reach Germany every day until the year ends, that's 303,000 more people Germany will need to provide food, shelter, hygiene facilities, and spending money for. That's in addition to the number that has arrived already so far this year. We actually don't know how many that is, since the most reliable evidence is people who have filed asylum claims, and that number lags weeks or months behind the number of actual arrivals.

Germany's Justice Minister, Heiko Maas, has been helping refugees by...criticizing Facebook (g) for permitting people to say nasty things about them. About the many reports of sexual assaults of refugee women in children inside German refugee shelters -- seemingly something a Justice Minister might be interested in -- Maas is silent.


Merkel Should Apologize and Ask for Help

Germany, which will receive around 130,000 migrants this month alone, is overwhelmed. Signs of crisis and breakdown are everywhere, and there are still hundreds of thousands of migrants in the pipeline. Desperate German (and some European) politicians continue to try to get other European countries to accept more of the million migrants Germany lured to the continent. 

So far they've tried two methods.

The first method is appeals to European "solidarity" and European "values". This doesn't work, because those are lofty abstractions, and nobody agrees on their meaning.

The second method is by threatening to withhold EU funds to countries that don't take "enough" migrants. This doesn't work, because it looks like Germany bullying other countries to clean up its mess. It enrages countries which are much poorer than Germany, threatening to gravely damage the EU itself.

There is a third option, although one that, in my experience, German civil servants never consider: Apologize. A short speech for Merkel:

Europe (or the rest of the world), Germany has been a main driver of this crisis. We failed to anticipate a flow of refugees that anyone could have seen was coming. We didn't prepare. We made a decision to ignore Schengen that sent the wrong signal, luring hundreds of thousands more people. We take full responsibility for this problem. But right now, we are faced with a number of refugees which we simply cannot handle. So in the spirit of humility, we apologize for our previous actions and ask for help.

The migrants are not to blame, at least not the migrants who are actually fleeing war and persecution. They should not suffer unduly for our mistake. We ask you to take significantly more refugees. In return, we will agree to tax our citizens to provide a lavish financial aid package that will reduce the financial burden to a minimum. We will also agree to immediately implement and help pay for strict border controls on the EU outer border, to ensure that we do not get further streams of refugees when we can't cope with the ones we already have.

Other nations of Europe (or the rest of the world), please accept our apology and help us out. We'll remember it the next time you need a favor. That is solidarity.

Maybe it will work, maybe not. But it would be a big improvement on threats and abstractions. 


Presidential Candidate Says Muslims Shouldn't Be President

I haven't blogged about the American Presidential race because I don't live there anymore and don't really care who runs it, as long as it's not a very silly person like George W. Bush. For the record, I support Bernie Sanders, have donated to his campaign, and would vote for him if I still bothered to vote in American elections, which I haven't done recently. The last place I was registered to vote was Texas, so I can only vote there. I don't care who runs Texas, and my Texas vote never has the slightest role to play in national elections. because of the silly Electoral College.

But this is really something else. Ben Carson is a retired neurosurgeon. By all accounts a gifted one, he was the first to separate twins conjoined at the head. He is also a Seventh-Day-Adventist (that's one of those shiny new American religions, by the way) and is running for the Republican Presidential nomination. Here's a short excerpt of a recent interview: 

Carson thinks a Muslim shouldn't be President because Islam is inconsistent with the Constitution of the US. US Constitution, Art. VI: "[N]o religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States."

Now, Ben Carson will never become President of the USA, not even in the darkest alternate timeline where the zombies join up with the aliens. But still, the fact that millions of Americans think he should be is rather sobering.


How to Handle Migrants on the Housing Market

Der-koelner-maik-stolze-vor-seinem-mini-eigenheim-

[source]

In Germany, if your initial paperwork is approved and you are granted refugee status (and in certain other circumstances), you are eligible to move into an apartment that you find and rent yourself. The state gives you a voucher for the rental costs, but it's small. This means, in the coming months, hundreds of thousands of migrants will flood into the market for low-income housing in Germany. There is already a shortage of affordable housing so severe that many German cities have imposed rent controls.

And no, even if the refugees are placed in rural East Germany, they will not stay there. They will all flood into major population centers where they already have relatives and there is an existing Arabic-speaking community. The federal government can't stop this flight into the cities. The German state will never be willing to take the coercive measures necessary to actually force 400 Syrians located in a small East German town where there are no jobs and the locals distrust them. 

So all those migrants are going to flock to Berlin, Dortmund, Cologne, Bremen, Hamburg, etc. In many of these cities, there are already serious shortages of affordable housing. And now come foreign newcomers without jobs who don't speak any German to compete with German citizens for an affordable, decent place to live. And the foreigners, unlike the Germans, are clutching a piece of paper from the government that gives them free rent.

I can see the interviews now: Cindy, A German (or if you prefer Cansu, a long-settled Turkish-German) discount-store cashier, holding her 2 children, says: "I know it was good to take the refugees in and I don't blame them, but what about us German citizens who are already here and are working hard and paying our taxes? Where are our free rent checks? Where are our decent, affordable apartments?"

Of course, Green-party voting journalists will mock Cindy for implicitly comparing her hardship with those fleeing war. (They'll remain uncomfortably silent about Cansu.). Other journalists will produce long, statistics-laden pieces about why the affordable housing crisis really isn't quite as dramatic as you might think. The Bild tabloid will actually print the interview with both Cindy and Cansu, and will be attacked for the 455,003th time for "irresponsibly" inciting xenophobia.

And many working- and lower-middle class Germans will take a fresh look at anti-immigrant political parties.

To ignore this obvious crisis barreling down the road toward us would require a level of foolishness and shortsightedness that nobody expected to see from Germany. Until this summer.

So the Andrew Hammel Tough-But-Fair Think-Tank puts forward this White Paper:

  1. Social and political scientists accept that government benefits which are seen as only going to the poor or foreigners quickly become unpopular and get cancelled. This is a universal constant of human nature that cannot be changed, and any policy which ignores it is doomed. 
  2. Germany's going to need for the migrants alone 500,000 new affordable apartments not in rural East Germany, but in the cities where all the migrants will quickly move to.
  3. Therefore, the German Interior Ministry should announce the 50/50 plan: an ambitious new subsidized housing plan that will build or refurbish one new decent, rent-controlled apartment for low-income Germans for every new apartment built for migrants.
  4. The German Interior Ministry should announce this program right now, not after months of negative press coverage and mounting rage. Also, the federal government will announce that it will provide all the money, so there's no squabbles about which level of government will have to pay.
  5. This ambitious new housing program will be paid for by canceling existing tax cuts and raising the top marginal income tax on the rich by 3%. Also, a 30% inheritance tax on estates over €1 million. In Germany, about €250 billion (g) is passed generation to generation every year in Germany. Little Carlo-Alexander can give up €800 of his monthly €4000 trust-fund allowance to help desperate refugees, can't he?

At this point, my plan looks like a crazy dream. But I wouldn't be surprised to see something like it in, say, mid-2016.


Another Prediction Realized: The Upper Limit

So much has been happening that it seems impossible it was less than three weeks ago that I inadvertently sketched the future of German migration policy.

Me, August 31: In consultation with other EU member states, Germany will set an annual upper limit on the number of humanitarian migrants, including refugees, which it will harbor. I'd suggest something like 250,000 per year. A million refugees a year is not sustainable for Germany.

German Interior Minister (for now, calls for him to resign are getting louder) Thomas de Maiziere, as summarized (g) by the German channel RTL: "Interior Minister Thomas de Maiziere has made a controversial proposal in light of the continuing stream of refugees. In an interview with 'Der Spiegel' he demanded EU quotas. In other words, an upper limit for the acceptance of refugees. If the limit is reached, the Minister said, the refugee should be sent back to their country of origin, if it is safe there."

See, this is why I don't mind when people inaccurately call me a right-wing populist. In this crisis of uncontrolled mass migration, what's a "right-wing populist" idea on Monday is often the conventional wisdom by Friday. 

 

 

 


Austria: Right-Wing Populist Party in the Lead

The "Freedom Party of Austria" is a right-wing nativist/populist party comparable to the Front National in France. Its most famous leader was the spectacularly bizarre gay anti-immigrant Jean-Claude van Damme look-alike Jörg Haider, who once said:

"The social order of Islam is opposed to our Western values. Human rights and democracy are as incompatible with the Muslim religious doctrine as is the equality of women. In Islam, the individual and his free will count for nothing; faith and religious struggle – jihad, the holy war – for everything.

Haider died in a drunk-driving crash in 2008, with a BAC of 1.8, after leaving a gay bar. 

The Freedom Party has long been a force in Austrian politics, and it's even formed governing coalitions. It used to be (European) liberal / nationalist, but is now right-wing populist. Parties to the left of the FPA have tried to limit its participation in government and exclude controversial FPA members from high posts.

Now, thanks to the refugee crisis, the FPA is the strongest party in Austria. The most recent opinion poll (g) shows Austrians favor the Freedom Party by 33% Next come the Social Democrats with 23%, then the center-right People's Party with 21%. Two-thirds of Austrians disapprove of the current government (a grand coalition of center-right and center-left), especially its handling of immigration. The current Chancellor of Austria is a member of the Social Democratic Party, which would get 23% of the vote, 10 points behind the Freedom Party.

Austria has just stopped migrants crossing the border, stranding groups of them in Slovenia, Croatia, Serbia, and Hungary, which are busy screaming insults at each other and tossing the refugees back and forth (g).

The crisis continues.


The Forced Conversion of Ali S.

One of the things that began making me skeptical about the German press was breaking Rule of the Internet #2: Never Read the Comments. Amid the racist insults and moralizing lectures, there were nuggets of information that I laughed off as obvious exaggerations. Until I decided to look into them, and some of them turned out to be true.

For example, I once saw a comment to some FAZ-or-similar article about a political dispute over German deportation policy. Queefburglar69 or whoever he was (thanks, BoJack!) wrote: "What a pointless argument. They never deport them anyway." I looked into it, and sure enough, the number of deportations every year in Germany is far, far, far below the number of immigrants who are ordered deported. As of January 2015, 600,000 people were living in Germany even though their asylum application had been denied and their temporary refugee status expired. So Queefburglar had a point. 

Which brings me to sites like Politically Incorrect, a right-wing, anti-immigrant German website. Amid the rants and name-calling, of which there is quite a bit, there are also reports of amusing PC cowardice on the part of German news outlets and mainstream politicians. As I was posting Soeren Kern's exhaustive catalog of sexual assaults by asylum seekers in Germany earlier, I read in that piece: "in an effort to protect the identity of Ali S, a Munich newspaper referred to him by the more politically correct 'Joseph T.'"

Wait, what?

And it turns out to be true. In June 2015, a Somali migrant named Ali S. allegedly tried to rape a woman in a Munich disco bathroom. Fortunately, the woman fought back, smashed open the door, and alerted police. Ali S. had been previously convicted of a sex crime. He said he was high on the African stimulant Kat. He was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison. The Bild-Zeitung reported much of this, calling the suspect Ali S. But when the Munich tabloid Münchener Abendzeitung covered the case, the last line of the report was: "Joseph T. wurde von der Disco-Security festgehalten." (By the way, you now know how to say disco security in German). From Ali S. emerges Joseph T.!

Sultan2On the left we see the writer for the Münchener Abendzeitung confronting the former Ali S.: "Ali S.! Put aside your wicked idolatry! Cease and desist from worshiping the wrong God! In the name of the Father, the Son -- who was much more than a prophet, mind you -- and the Holy Ghost, who definitely does exist, I hereby christen you Joseph T. Go and sin no more. Also, stop raping people. Seriously."

This whitefacing of Ali S. was noticed by Politically Incorrect, who mocked it heartily and asked its readers to let the Münchener Abendzeitung know they didn't fancy being lied to.

The article now reads: "Der Täter ("The criminal") wurde von der Disco-Security festgehalten." So the current version of the article just calls the man "the suspect", no mention of "Joseph T." Were the right-wing trolls of Politically Incorrect wrong? Did they invent an absurd story about a newspaper changing the name of a criminal suspect to hide his foreign identity? Was this all just a scam? 

There was only one way to find out. I went over the Internet Wayback Machine and found out, sure enough, that the original version of the article did in fact re-christen Ali S. to Joseph T. and that it was later changed, doubtless after the bumptious readers of Politically Incorrect had their say.

Ali S. / Joseph T. could not be reached for comment about his new faith.


Soeren Kern on Sex Crimes In and Around German Refugee Shelters

Thanks to Stakhanov, I am pointed to this long piece by Soeren Kern on sexual assaults inside and outside German refugee shelters. He contends German police are 'downplaying a massive spike' in these incidents:

The problem of rapes and sexual assaults in German refugee shelters is a nationwide problem.

In Bavaria, women and girls housed at a refugee shelter in Bayernkaserne, a former military base in Munich, are subject to rape and forced prostitution on a daily basis, according to women's rights groups. Although the facility has separate dorm rooms for women, the doors cannot be locked and men control access to the sanitary facilities.

Approximately 80% of the refugees/migrants at the shelter are male, according to Bavarian Broadcasting (Bayerischer Rundfunk), which reports that the price for sex with female asylum seekers is ten euros. A social worker described the facility this way: "We are the biggest brothel in Munich."

...

On August 6, police revealed that a 13-year-old Muslim girl was raped by another asylum seeker at a refugee facility in Detmold, a city in west-central Germany. The girl and her mother reportedly fled their homeland to escape a culture of sexual violence; as it turns out, the man who raped the girl is from their country.

Although the rape took place in June, police kept silent about it for nearly three months, until local media published a story about the crime. According to an editorial comment in the newspaperWestfalen-Blatt, police are refusing to go public about crimes involving refugees and migrants because they do not want to give legitimacy to critics of mass migration.

Police chief Bernd Flake countered that the silence was aimed at protecting the victim. "We will continue with this policy [of not informing the public] whenever crimes are committed in refugee facilities," he said.

...

Over the weekend of June 12-14, a 15-year-old girl housed at a refugee shelter in Habenhausen, a district in the northern city of Bremen, was repeatedly raped by two other asylum seekers. The facility has been has been described as a "house of horrors" due to the spiraling violence perpetrated by rival gangs of youth from Africa and Kosovo. A total of 247 asylum seekers are staying at the shelter, which has a capacity for 180 and a cafeteria with seating for 53.

Meanwhile, the raping of German women by asylum seekers is becoming commonplace. Following are a few select cases just from 2015:

On September 11, a 16-year-old girl was raped by an unidentified "dark-skinned man speaking broken German" close to a refugee shelter in the Bavarian town of Mering. The attack occurred while the girl was walking home from the train station.

On August 13, police arrested two Iraqi asylum seekers, aged 23 and 19, for raping an 18-year-old German woman behind a schoolyard in Hamm, a city in North Rhine-Westphalia.

On July 26, a 14-year-old boy was sexually assaulted inside the bathroom of a regional train in Heilbronn, a city in southwestern Germany. Police are looking for a "dark skinned" man between the ages of 30 and 40 who has an "Arab appearance." Also on July 26, a 21-year-old Tunisian asylum seeker raped a 20-year-old woman in the Dornwaldsiedlung district of Karlsruhe. Police kept the crime secret until August 14, when a local paper went public with the story.

On June 9, two Somali asylum seekers, aged 20 and 18, were sentenced to seven-and-a-half years in prison for raping a 21-year-old German woman in Bad Kreuznach, a town in Rhineland-Palatinate, on December 13, 2014.

On June 5, a 30-year-old Somali asylum seeker called "Ali S" was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for attempting to rape a 20-year-old woman in Munich. Ali had previously served a seven-year sentence for rape, and had been out of prison for only five months before he attacked again. In an effort to protect the identity of Ali S, a Munich newspaper referred to him by the more politically correct "Joseph T."

On May 22, a 30-year-old Moroccan man was sentenced to four years and nine months in prison for attempting to rape a 55-year-old woman in Dresden. On May 20, a 25-year-old Senegalese asylum seeker was arrested after he attempted to rape a 21-year-old German woman at the Stachus, a large square in central Munich.

On April 16, a 21-year-old asylum seeker from Iraq was sentenced to three years and ten months in prison for raping a 17-year-old girl at festival in the Bavarian town of Straubing in August 2014. On April 7, a 29-year-old asylum seeker was arrested for the attempted rape of a 14-year-old girl in the town of Alzenau.

On March 17, two Afghan asylum seekers aged 19 and 20 were sentenced to five years in prison for the "particularly abhorrent" rape of a 21-year-old German woman in Kirchheim, a town near Stuttgart, on August 17, 2014.

On February 11, a 28-year-old asylum seeker from Eritrea was sentenced to four years in prison for raping a 25-year-old German woman in Stralsund, along the Baltic Sea, in October 2014.

On February 1, a 27-year-old asylum seeker from Somalia was arrested after attempting to rape women in the Bavarian town of Reisbach.

On January 16, a 24-year-old Moroccan immigrant raped a 29-year-old woman in Dresden.

...

Meanwhile, parents are being warned to look after their daughters. Police in the Bavarian town of Mering, where a 16-year-old-girl was raped on September 11, have issued a warning to parents not to allow their children to go outside unaccompanied. They have also advised women not to walk to or from the train station alone because of its proximity to a refugee shelter.

Now, as to the source. The Gatestone Institute is located in the US and officially non-partisan. It is, however, run by American neo-conservatives, both famous and obscure. Its chairman is John Bolton. That should give you an idea of its political orientation. The author, Soeren Kern, has ties to center-right think tanks and European political parties, but also has extensive professional experience and education, and being a joint German-American citizen, understands German.

That is, he's not an extremist or fanatic. He's a journalist and researcher with a conservative political orientation. 

I checked a few of the links he provided, and the translations are reliable. The one quibble I have is with this quotation: "Police chief Bernd Flake countered that the silence was aimed at protecting the victim. "We will continue with this policy [of not informing the public] whenever crimes are committed in refugee facilities," he said. This was in In context, the police chief was referring to sex crimes involving children, and arguing that it was the general policy of Detmold police not to report these, and that this policy would also extend to refugee shelters. However, in the same article, he goes on to undermine the point by adding the argument that the shelters would be 'filled with yellow-press journalists' if the rape of children inside them were reported.

Remember, Germany is in the process of allowing uncontrolled mass migration of 70% young men from some of the world's most conservative cultures. Anyone who's traveled in sexually conservative third-world countries immediately senses the bottled-up sexual energy. Aside from hands and faces, there is basically no uncovered female skin on display either in real life or in public images. The population is disproportionately young and male, and extra-marital intercourse is still considered a huge scandal outside a tiny fraction of the urban elite. So the only legal way to have regular sex is through marriage. But getting married takes resources that are out of many young men's reach.

So they turn to online pornography, which should hardly come as a surprise. And believe me, the behavior of many ordinary European women -- wearing tight clothes, showing all that skin, walking around unaccompanied -- would get an average woman shunned, at the very least. Therefore, many ignorant young men from these cultures believe all European women are promiscuous. Several times, young men have asked me what it's like in Germany, with all those hot-to-trot women everywhere. "You must be making love every night different woman, no?" an Egyptian asked me once.

This is not to excuse sex crimes in any way -- anyone who commits one should be sent to prison for a long time. My point is rather this. We now have a situation in which Germany:

(1) allowed uncontrolled mass migration of hundreds of thousands of sexually-frustrated young men from conservative cultures who are now thousands of miles away from the moderating influence of family and neighborhood; and then 

(2) housed them in improvised, overcrowded accommodations with inadequate security and no locks; and put them

(3) right next to young females in the shelter, and with ready access to "promiscuous" German women on the outside.

Now that these fateful decisions have been made. The consequences could and should have been foreseen by any responsible policy-maker with any worldly experience. Many of these crimes could have been prevented if Germany had taken a responsible, controlled approach to immigration. And as long as the authorities keep actively trying to cover up the resulting problems -- which they've admitted doing -- the German xenophobic right will continue to reap the benefits by styling itself the only citizens "concerned" enough to tell the real truth.

This is going to get worse before it gets better.