When Will Greeks Attack the German Embassy?

Mayy Yglesias writes:

Something that strikes me as a bit surprising about the conventional wisdom on this side of the Atlantic about the Eurozone is how few people seem willing to take the obvious victory lap. When the euro project was inaugurated in the 1990s, the vast majority of American economists across the political spectrum were deeply skeptical. Today, that skepticism is being vindicated. The euro has turned out to be exactly the bad idea that many people thought it would be, and for roughly the reasons that the skeptics thought. So why aren't more people calling for this disaster to become an opportunity to unwind a policy that never should have been implemented in the first place? The conventional wisdom is that this is "unthinkable" because un-euroizing would be a "disaster" which it would be. But keeping the 330 million people of the Eurozone and their $13 trillion economy locked in an unworkable monetary system is pretty disastrous as well.

Yglesias is right. American Euroskeptics include the center-left Paul Krugman and the center-right Martin Feldstein -- a conservative deficit hawk who worked for Ronald Reagan -- who predicted the breakup of the Euro way back in 1997. In the U.S., at least, it's really not about political orientation.

I was discussing this last night and predicted that the current state of affairs, if it continues, might unleash a wave of Germany-hatred in the Eurozone periphery countries. It is simply an unsustainable situation to have a cabinet of unelected technocrats, with zero support in the population, responsible for pushing through giant, unprecedented budget cuts -- in the middle of a recession -- that will plunge millions of people out of the middle class, weaken already shaky health and education systems, and cause increases in poverty, homelessness, and suicide (all of which are already happening in Greece). Further, there will be no rapid end to the suffering -- drastic cuts in public expenditure during a recession will deepen the recession, causing further revenue decreases, raising debt, creating a self-fulfilling spiral of despair and misery. Even the most popular and charismatic leader would be run out of town for these policies, and colorless, unelected technocrats have no chance.

But I predict the anger won't be focused only on them, because they'll be seen as puppets. Many of the people in these countries will see the cuts as being ordered by Germany in order to save various banks. They will see themselves as being sacrificed -- against their will and without meaningful political representation -- for a policy that benefits Germany, not themselves. And while this is an oversimplification, there's more than enough truth in it to make it stick. Angela Merkel has cut an unfortunately high profile in all of these numberless EU summits. Further, Sarkozy has left enough hints of disagreement with Merkel to permit himself to play the good cop to her bad cop. Increasingly, EU policies risk coming to be seen as driven primarily by Germany. When the enemy was the EU or the IMF, it was too diffuse to permit real, targeted hostility. But if the enemy becomes Germany -- well, Germany has embassies, and diplomats, and prominent corporate presences. And unfortunate historical associations. If public anger begins crystallizing against Germany in particular, we could see some very ugly things soon.

All of which might be accepted as unfortunate but inevitable, if the policies were nevertheless the right thing to do. But I tend to doubt that...

Comments

[Michael]

>I didn't find the part where Monti was
>elected anywhere in there.

AFAIK, the Italian Prime Minister is never elected by parliament, but there's a confirmation. In Monti`s case, I found only this:
"Eine technische Regierung kann nur zustande kommen, wenn sich eine breite parlamentarische Basis finden lässt."
(A technical government can only come about if there is a broad parliamentary base.)
http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Politisches_System_Italiens#Die_.E2.80.9Etechnische.E2.80.9C_Regierung

Monti was "elected" by backroom consultations. Then the president asked him to form a government. Some days later he was sworn in and *after* that the Italian Parliament confirmed him in office:
556 out of 617 (Chamber of Deputies)
281 out of 307 (Senate of the Republic)
http://www.tagesspiegel.de/politik/abgeordnetenhaus-spricht-monti-vertrauen-aus/5864106.html

In Italy, that`s the normal constitutional way to form the government. Election Italian-style. The special thing is that his technical government has no support from an "official" coalition. There`s no coalition agreement. There can`t be such a thing, because the member of the government are no member of a political party.

>a cabinet of unelected technocrats, with
>zero support in the population,

Nearly 79 percent of the (adult?) population supports the new Italian government.
"Die neue italienische Regierung erfreut sich in der Bevölkerung einer Rekordzustimmung. In einer [...] Umfrage gaben knapp 79 Prozent der Befragten der Regierung auf einer Skala von eins bis zehn mehr als sechs Punkte."
http://www.20min.ch/news/ausland/story/10466523

[Zaungast]

The Germans were more than skeptical, too.
But they weren't given the choice of opting out.

[Volker]

Andrew, you of all people should know that most Leaders in Europe aren't "elected" but "appointed". The real power lies with the various parliaments and diets, they have the ultimate last say not the figure on top. There is no difference between a "technocrat" (whatever that means) and Merkel in that regard.

[Martin]

Andrew, are you arguing that Italy is not a democracy? I do not know what you want to tell me....? Democracies work differently - nothing new here.

(BTW: Wasn't your posting about Germany?)

I really like that in Germany and many other parts of Europe many officials are not elected but have their job because of some other (sometimes more professional) qualification. "elected" doesn't mean "better" - it just means "more political".
I personally like the idea of having professional judges and heads of police.
Leave the election thing to the top layers where the policies are set and leave the actual work to do to people who know what they are doing instaed of politicians who don't have a clue. The Italians take this to the extreme. So what?

The quotation you posted is nothing but the usual US Euro-bashing. No facts, based on assumptions and completely without understanding of how Europe works. He might be right, but as long as he doesn't deliver facts I assume that he is just gambling for a later as-I-said-so moment.

Maybe you don't find something like this in our "German groupthinking media", but do I really need this?

Martin

[Norbert]

Angela Merkel has cut an unfortunately high profile in all of these numberless EU summits.

Damned if you do, damned if you don't. Numerous articles in the Anglo-Saxon press have cricised Germany for an alleged "lack of leadership" in the crisis. Inevitably any attempt at leadership at the EU level, whether clumsy or considerate, will have to include policies "seen as driven primarily by Germany".

And your last paragraph mentioning the "right thing to do"....that would be what exactly?

[strcmp]

Monti is elected in the sense that the parlament trusts him. If they wanted another candidate, the could have voted against him: http://www.wiwo.de/politik/ausland/italien-monti-kann-nach-vertrauensabstimmung-regieren/5861290.html http://www.heute.de/ZDFheute/inhalt/23/0,3672,8371991,00.html

[Andrew]

@F. Kleist: But, of course, lots of things have changed since last May. And lots of things will change even more drastically in the future. My post was a prediction, not an assessment of the past. We'll see whether I'm right.

@Volker & Martin: I quote you the Wikipedia entry on Mario Monti: "On 9 November 2011, Monti was appointed a Lifetime Senator by Italian President Giorgio Napolitano. Mario Monti was seen as a favourite to replace Silvio Berlusconi to lead a new unity government in Italy in order to implement reforms and austerity measures. On 12 November 2011, following Berlusconi's resignation, Napolitano invited Monti to form a new government."

I didn't find the part where Monti was elected anywhere in there. Nor did I find the part which described Monti's existing base of Parliamentary support. The English tabloids are right. As Orwell once said, just because something appeared in the Daily Telegraph doesn't automatically mean it's false. You may be afraid of the word unelected, but there's no question it applies.

Remember, the question here is not whether Berlusconi is a clown (he is) or Monti probably a good choice (he is). The point is that nobody in Italy has ever voted, directly or indirectly, for Mario Monti. I happen to think this fact will become very important when he begins pushing through drastic budget cuts.

[Ney]

What guides the Merkel policy is the simple question "Is it good for Deutsche Bank, or is it dangerous for Deutsche Bank?"

[Martin]

"unelected" See paragraph 9 in:

http://www.kosmopolito.org/2011/11/18/short-guide-to-lazy-eu-journalism/

Andrew, I found this link via an article on "Atlantic review" which I found because you are linking to it.

So I guess you know the guide to lazy EU journalism and tried to give an ironic example.

You were not very successful...

Martin

[Volker]

"It is simply an unsustainable situation to have a cabinet of unelected technocrats..."

Seriously Andrew, put the English tabloids away they aren't good for you.

[Ralph]

"...might unleash a wave of Germany-hatred in the Eurozone periphery countries."

I was recently in Italy and suddenly realized that though a U.S. citizen, I was identified as coming from Germany, and might become an object of fear and dislike.

Quite a novel experience.

[Ferdinand Kleist]

lol, even if people were so stupid to believe such xenophobic hogwash (and I can report happily that as of last may, when an extended stay in Madrid ended for me, Germany was still easily the most respected country in the world in Italy and Spain and Angela Merkel quite a popular politician:

"Was juckts die deutsche Eiche wenn sich ne Sau dran reibt".

I think we are beyond buying popularity with money. I think people need to find another easily exploitable scapegoat, prone to sucumb to unjustified criticism for historical reasons. They need to find somebody else to buy their letters of indulgence.

I hope Dr. Merkel wil continue to press forward towards a more United Europe that has made the economic reforms necessary to prosper in globalisation.

The first steps are already taken. Mario Monti is an excellent visionary of Europe and stands for sound liberal economic policies.

What led into the crisis was unprincipled government plastering over problems with borrowed money. Not a single cent was spent more for education, R and D and innovative investment when Greece lent itself all that money. Clearly if they want to achieve a better standard of living they have to dramatically change. We can give good advise on that.

What will lead out of this crisis is not more of the same burdening of our children but responsibility for ones own actions, stability and reliability.