Why Germany has a Low Birth Rate

Germany's birth rate is too low to sustain its current population levels, and this is going to cause increasing problems for it. The new Minister for Families, Ursula von der Leyen, a woman who has seven children herself, thinks the answer is to shower yet more money (German) on Germans who have children, this time in the form of more tax breaks and "parent-money," which adds to the "child-money" Germans already get. Her proposals, as well as her person, are controversial, for reasons I won't get into.

The Allensbach institute, on of the principal public-opinion research institutes in Germany, recently asked Germans of child-bearing age why they aren't having children.  Here are some of the reasons (German):

1. A child would be too much of a financial burden (47%)
2. I'm still too young for that (47%)
3. My career plans would be hard to fulfill with a child (37%)
4. I haven't yet found the right partner (28%)
5. I want to have the maximum amount of freedom, not to have to limit myself (27%)
6. I have many interests that would be hard to reconcile with having a child (27%)
7. Children are hard to raise; I am not sure I have the strength and nerves for that (27%)
8. I want to be as independent as possible (26%)
9. I would then have less time for friends (19%)
10. I don't know if my relationship will stay together (17%)
11. I or my partner would be at a career disadvantage if we had a child (16%)

Not a very reassuring picture because, as the Institute points out, there is not much the government can do about a lot of these things. Of course, the government can reduce the financial burden yet further, and try to make it easier to integrate career and family. However, it's hard to see how.

I don't think people see having a child as a financial burden because the government doesn't give them enough money. Germany, like most European nations, showers parents with tax breaks and subsidies, but still has a much lower birth rate than countries -- such as the United States -- that give parents more limited financial help.

The reason singles think children are too expensive is because of the underlying economic malaise and feelings of insecurity. That is, even after the government bonuses and tax breaks, people think they don't make enough money or have enough job security to start a family. As for the career issue, I hear this from many women, and there's probably something to it. But there are already relatively good legal protections in Germany for women who get pregnant on the job, and the main ways of significantly strenghthening these protections -- such as tough anti-discrimination laws -- would be controversial.

The research I've read indicates that people are more likely to have children when they are bound into tight family structures, strongly religious, and have an optimistic, forward-looking attitude toward their lives and their societies. In most countries, people know well that having children means huge career sacrifices and costs tons of time and money, but they do it anyway (whether because of social expectations or strong drives), without expecting any reward from the government.  That's why I can't see how tinkering around the edges of German government policy is going to accomplish much; it cannot change these broad cultural factors.

Comments

[Anthony]

Let us clarify a few things. Having a low birth rate = God's wrath, that is f'ing idiotic. Next, the causes of this decline are largely socioeconomic, moral and cultural. The Germans simply must learn to understand, as we need to here in the United States, that the subsistence of the Western world is dependent upon actually continuing the culture that carries it. People have a moral responsibility to have children. Next, immigration is not the answer. You see, Germany is still a first world country. America... I don't know. I'll leave that as it is to be interpreted. Low birthrates are generally a sign of, unfortunately in our modern era, and quite ironically, social success. It seems that societies with high standards of living, who don't want to burden themselves or their careers (which implies that they have careers in greater proportions) with children, don't have them. The same is true in America! It is quite simple really. The smarter and more successful people become, the less they generally reproduce. In fact, ironically again, this attitude, is the direct byproduct of education and a more refined liberal worldview. In other words, it comes along with other more progressive attitudes, even if I think this individual attitude is sadly mistaken. It is in part the shame of the Western world for all the supposed atrocities we have committed (total load of liberal crap). It is like we want to exterminate ourselves. Talk about German economic malaise is nonsense. It is America that is sinking. That should be clear to most of you. France has a replacement birthrate because of its muslim population(period), and their economic malaise is far more pronounced. Muslims are reproducing at something like 3x replacement level there. In America, the same is largely true, except we have Mexicans. The average white birthrate in the United States, is about 1.6, and even for blacks is a mere 1.7. It is hispanics with significantly higher birthrates that are propping up the statistics, or should I say distorting them. I happen to like the Germans, being one myself, and happen to think that regardless of mistakes made in the past by a few nuts at the top, the disintegration of the German people is not good for the world. Regarding arab Jew Israelis and Hassidic nuts (who are the ones having the children, not Ashkenazis!), I would take any random German over them any day. So, by the way, would my Jewish father. Hopefully the West, and the people in it, and not the Germans alone, figure out what they are doing wrong and correct themselves by at least having children, before Islam and the third world overruns us all. Peace be with you all.

[Sebastian Koppehel]

Here's a political incorrect explanation to that.

I'd go one further and say that explanation is actually completely and utterly incorrect from all possible angles.

[Don]

"It would be like an American person telling me that they're not American but Southern. Pleaz..."

More like an 'American' confessing that he's not Canadian, I think.....

[James]

'German females embraced empowerment and independence big-time in the 70s; probably more than most other nations in Europe. They will not have that independence compromised.'

I'd argue that American women are even more empowered and independent than their German or even British counterparts. Then, there's a break off... American women are procreating at replacement rates (and slightly higher if you see recent polls).

Here's a political incorrect explanation to that. In Germany and Holland, prostitution is legal. A man would rather spend his earnings, seeing a "professional" legally, than in taking a chance with a woman who might not have any authentic interest in him. In contrast, outside of certain jet setters, American men don't have that option. In the end, a typical American guy will marry and have a child just to make a girlfriend happy and have a chance for a stable home life (with possibly consistent sex). The movie, 'American Beauty' nicely encapsulates this lifestyle. In contrast, a Dutch or German fellow would rather be a VIP at XYZ adult massage and be able to float about, in the pool of available dates until the right one (if ever) emerges.

Now, given the passage of time, if a German pair either marries late or the person never finds a compatible soul mate, then the children get pushed more and more into the future, until they stop becoming a priority altogether. I suspect that western Europe has now entered the threshold where children have lost their intrinsic value to a happy lifestyle and when one group/generation picks up on that, then it becomes more mainstream until all generations want the same thing.

[Yoda]

"Even the millions of black sins committed by Germans during the tenure of the Austrian are in theory forgivable, with contrition."

To the apologist who wrote the above... Austrians are of German descent, just separated by a political border. It would be like an American person telling me that they're not American but Southern. Pleaz...

[Scott Joseph, MD]

Oh, incidentally, 3 of the countries leading the world in low birthrate are Japan, Italy, and Germany. What countries were in the WWII Axis? And the most antisemitic of the Allies was Russia (catastrophic population loss) followed by Britain (under replacement rate birthrate) followed by the USA (still growing, with our economy starting to turn around).

Don't mess with the Chosen of G-d. Bless them and thou shalt be blessed. Curse them and thou shalt be cursed. Pray for the Peace of a Unified Jewish Jerusalem.

You would think people would get the point after 3.5 millenia.

[Scott Joseph, MD]

Regarding births, The French lie. Mohammed is one of the most popular names in France for newborns. Hey, how many poor kids torching Citroens were named Etienne?

I mean, these are people who can't defend themselves from their own miniature poodles, (couldn't have happened to a nicer scumbag than Jacque Chirac) much less Muslim terrorists.

2.02 is still below replacement. And the French set up systems to undercount Islamic births. Sorry, Veronique. Your granddaughter will be an houri if she doesn't revert.

[influx]

In my opinion, daccy is a pinhead.

[Don]

This again.

Ok, let me put down what as a not very good Christian I was taught and believe to be true.

The most important point is that God's mercy surpasses human understanding. God does not punish children for the sins of their fathers and grandfathers, and God rejoices more at the redemption of the lost lamb, the sinner's return to the fold.

Even the millions of black sins committed by Germans during the tenure of the Austrian are in theory forgivable, with contrition. Even the Austrian himself, if in the depths of his despair in that bunker underneath Berlin. If he repented and was contrite in those last days it is possible that God would have forgiven even him.

I don't think it likely that he did that, but I don't know for certain. God understands everything. I think certain souls alienate themselves so far from God's love then when they die they may be extinguished, thrown away. But I don't believe God takes revenge on them.

[daccy]

In my opinion this is God's revenge upon Germany for the holocaust

[Véronique]

"France does not have a high birth rate---it is around 1.8 per woman (2.1 is replacement.) "
It was 2.02 in 2008 and 1.98 in 2007 (see here (fr) among many other sources)

"Also not broken down by ethnic background."
0.1 out of the 2.02 are children from a foreign or immigrant mother (see here (fr))

[Scott Joseph, MD]

France does not have a high birth rate---it is around 1.8 per woman (2.1 is replacement.) Also not broken down by ethnic background. 6 PM is Car torch time in Paris.

[Scott Joseph, MD]

Actually, yes, I am saying that G-d is patient. Israel has a birthrate of 2.7 children per woman or thereabouts (Jewish women). Germany, Italy, and Japan are in the 1.4 range or lower. I didn't say this was a good thing. I suspect G-d is a malignant jester.

[Phil Salez]

I live in Barcelona and the situation here is a disgrace. Overall Spain has a birth rate of 1.4. This is far below the rate meaning the Spanish population is dying out. But this is also the case for Europe. White Europeans are dying out and in my view due to the selfishness of the generation born during and after the war through to the 60s. This generation controls politics and the cost of housing. All of this is skewed in their favour. For example, my parents bought land for a house for $200 and are now selling it for $200,000. Their income when they bought the land in absolute terms is the same as mine now (I'm 30). But I am expected to drown in debt to get this land. To solve the problem of birth rates young people born after 1970 should refuse to pay pentions for the selfish older generation. Also all property should not be sold at anymore than twice what it was bought for so young people can also get a chance at property for family use. Finally, it should be illegal to not allow a woman with children to work from home (we have the internet now). Fail to do this and Europe must open the gates to Muslems and others from various poor and conservative nations.

[rollx]

Its not strange that a problem occurs, its stranger that the politicians cant solve it fast enough.

Link the pension system to how many children a person had during its life time. Make it a disadvantige to not have children.

[Sebastian Koppehel]

Second, isn't it interesting that the WWII Axis powers have the lowest birthrates. The Lord of Hosts is patient, eh?

So what you are saying is that God let six million of his chosen people be slaughtered and then punished the murderers decades later by giving them a low birth rate?

[Scott A. Joseph,MD]

Two comments:

One, Germany will not go unpopulated---it will become an outpost of Dar es Islam.

Second, isn't it interesting that the WWII Axis powers have the lowest birthrates. The Lord of Hosts is patient, eh?

Even considering (2), this is a bad thing. A VERY bad thing. We need more Europeans with benign values. Dar es Islam is not fun.

[Christo]

Well for reasons that are impossible to list here, it is a fact that father dominant families have more kids. Unfortunately, even though it is well evident throughout history and around the world, it is not explained to the public.
Abraham became a patriarch by abandoning the ways of the society he was born into. The ways of that society are evident in Sara’s habits. She was pretty but not a mother, rather living a life of joy and profit. It took two generations for the patriarchs to convert the females back into mothers.
One after another Egyptian civilizations died once the fathers lost full control.
The Minoans, the Mycenae are known to have suffered similarly.
Take a good look around the world cultures and make a note of the relation.

Look at today’s Israel. Only the orthodox that still “oppress” their wife’s have kids, many kids.
Check out Afghanistan. The elusive answer is there.
Unfortunately, the original Germans will perish, and it will not be the Nationalists fault.

[Sarah]

The article raises very good points. Religious families and social reasons are the main reasons families are bigger in far eastern countries, for example. The points raised are legitimate. I grew up in Germany and my family is half english. All around me in my school were families of only one maybe two children, and parents were much older than the average parent in the UK. I believe that money and career options are not the bigger reason for not hacing children and preserving your line : It has to be a sort of selfishness.Why else would they say they want a career, and not a baby? Wanting a baby could be seen as selfish, but not if you are able to provide for your baby with a stable family.

[Hopfer]

In response to erichetto saying that the germanic family is basically cold and unaffectionate...

I think your claim is an obvious exception to the rule. I grew up in a German family and we were loud, humorous, very affectionate and very caring. Your story also seems very... Hmmm... How should I put this... BOGUS.

[Ligia]

"1.A child would be too much of a financial burden (47%)"

Well, what about the money germans spend on their pets? this is a f*cking amazingly stupid excuse! Specially for a country with such comfortable living conditions like Germany. Thus, let´s face it: good education, health and TIME for parenting is expensive but when kids are about 16, 18 they will start getting little jobs to pay their private expenses and you slowly are going to cut the finacial ties that bind the parents-children for so many years...

I agree with Rich: being selfish and extremely individualist is a decisive reason people not to have kids in countries like Germany.

[Rich Muse]

My ancestors are German. My wife and I were in Germany a few months ago and we are expecting our first in June. I truly wish I had not seen more dogs in Germany than children. It was a sad sight. I want four or five children and I hope that the countries of my ancestry do not die off because the only children I saw in Germany were foreign children. That is not to sound insensitive or racist. I think it is ok to want to preserve our own just as many in this world want to preserve animals, insects, and all types of species of the sort. I truly believe more and more people are becoming selfish. They and we need to realize that we are all going to die, but we can leave someone like us, or that is almost like a part of us here whether they believe in a hereafter or not.

[Micheal O'Laoire]

Perhaps the reason's why Germany has such a low birth rate can be summed up as follows:
1. Children are incredibly annoying.
2. Children are incredibly expensive, even when you're the damn godparent, 70€ for a crappy candle, some earnings and a 'certificate'(that probably cost all of €2 to manufacture), someone's having a laugh at my expense, can they not take it out the church tax. Call being a godparent a privilege.
3. No stupid invasive procedures right through the pregnancy just to keep the fascist government happy.
4. Thanks for this great 'Mutter Kind Pass', I'll be sure to jump through all the hoops for you. In fact, just shove it and we'll do without this whopping 30€ a week. Whatever moronic bureaucracy will they come up with next.
5. The price of contraception is too great to waste all that time and money by having a kid, 15€ a month, and each time the gyno chooses a 'better one' it costs 3€ more a month. Bet she's winging her way to Barbados at Schering's expense thanks to that not to mention the 150€ an hour she earns (women certainly get the better deal when it comes to health insurance), pretty good work if you can find it.

Still, all the best to you people who have kids, at least they'll be someone looking after us when we're old and not have had to put up with all the crap that comes with them. Even if the worst comes to the worst, at least they're letting Turkey in the EU.

[Rigsby]

The survey is prescient and revealing but surely doesn't tell us anything we don't already know about German attitudes to children and family. Grass referred to as much in his book "Headbirths" back in the 80s. Having just returned to the UK after living 10 years in Germany, I can safely say that the differences in thinking as regards the benefits a child will bring are stark in both cultures.

This is - inter alia - a cultural factor that's pretty unique to Germany. The economic factors/reasons quoted are applicable also to other EU countries but - as pointed out by posters further up - it hasn't stopped these other countries procreating with gusto and maintaining a pretty healthy birth rate.

German females embraced empowerment and independence big-time in the 70s; probably more than most other nations in Europe. They will not have that independence compromised. Many German women I've met will freely admit that their priorities are:
i) Career
ii)Car
iii) Holidays

If they feel compelled to nurture and care for anything (and throw away their shrines to Germaine Greer in the process), then they'll take a cat or two on board. If they like to bark and give orders then they'll take a dog instead.

Children come way down the list. It's hard not to conclude that this is an extraordinarily self-serving and blinkered approach to life. The men are not much different either, even if many I've met do use (all too conveniently at times) the misogynistic card in referring to their female compatriots as aggressive and categorically lacking in any of the charm and guile that makes a female attractive.

It's all too convenient blaming economic factors for lack of children. The real reason is pure selfishness. The prospect of having to share your space with someone who will ultimately answer back and be a financial burden is an alien concept to many Germans I know.

Lest we forget: Grass's book was subtitled 'the Germans are dying out'.

You guys better get with the programme.

[Lionel Barret]

One important fact is that women do values their independence very high. It's true in almost all western Europe.

France has a high birth rate (and quite high taxes). Why ?
Because the image of having a baby in France is quite positive.
But also because there is a lot of "crèches" (i don't know the english word) so women can go to work and let their kids there.
It's not about career it's about losing independence.
Spain, Italy share the same problem : they have no enough infrastructure, so women have to choose between independence (working) and a baby (meaning staying at home to keep the baby). Even rich people are affected by this because nurse are *very* hard to find (and expensive obviously)

As a man, what would you choose between your work and financial independence, and having a baby ? Think hard, financial dependance is an ugly ugly thing.

The economic malaise is not the reason. the german birth rate has been much lower than France for a decade. And France shares Germany economic malaise and feeling of insecurity. The trend (low birth rate) is much heavier, older.

Japan is in the same position, only worse.